Big Sky Tract: Luxury Market Shows Resilience with Strong Sales Growth

January 2026 Market Analysis

The Big Sky Tract luxury real estate market is telling a compelling story as we enter 2026. This prestigious Simi Valley enclave saw a remarkable 35% increase in sales volume during 2025, with 23 homes sold compared to just 17 the previous year. While average prices adjusted downward by 13.2%, a $2 million sale in December demonstrates the market's continued ability to attract premium buyers seeking exceptional properties.

Market Overview: Increased Activity in Luxury Segment

Big Sky Tract's performance in 2025 reveals a dynamic luxury market finding its equilibrium after previous years of rapid appreciation. The median sale price now stands at $1,215,000, with an average of $1,329,778—positioning this exclusive community firmly in the upper tier of Simi Valley real estate.

2025 Annual Performance:

• 23 homes sold (up 35% from 17 in 2024)

• Median sale price: $1,215,000

• Average sale price: $1,329,778 (adjusted -13.2% from previous year)

• Highest sale: $2,000,000 (December 12, 2025)

• Average days on market: 70 days

• Sale-to-list ratio: 98.2%

The $2 Million Milestone Sale

The December 12, 2025 sale of a 6-bedroom, 6-bathroom, 4,228-square-foot home for $2 million—matching the asking price exactly—represents the high-water mark for Big Sky Tract in 2025. Remarkably, this property sold in just 2 days, demonstrating that exceptional properties in prime condition can still command immediate buyer interest even in a luxury market experiencing price adjustments.

This sale, at $473 per square foot, significantly exceeded the market average of $408 per square foot, proving that premium positioning and quality can justify substantial price premiums.

Market Dynamics: Volume Up, Prices Adjusting

The 13.2% downward price adjustment might initially seem concerning, but when viewed alongside the 35% increase in sales volume, it reveals a healthy market correction. After years of rapid appreciation, Big Sky Tract is finding a price point where buyer demand surges—exactly what a healthy market should do.

Why This Is Positive:

• More transactions mean greater market liquidity

• Price adjustments have activated previously hesitant buyers

• Sellers who price competitively are finding eager buyers

• The market is functioning efficiently rather than stagnating

Extremely Tight Inventory

One of the most striking aspects of the Big Sky Tract market is the extraordinarily low inventory:

• Only 4 active listings in a community of 758 homes

• 1 pending sale showing continued buyer interest

• 0 new listings in the past 30 days

This represents just 0.5% of the community's homes being actively for sale—an extremely tight inventory situation that typically supports price stability or appreciation going forward.

Current Listings: Premium Properties Awaiting Buyers

The four active listings showcase the range of luxury offerings in Big Sky Tract:

1. $1,555,000 - 4BR/5BA, 3,973 sq ft (32 days on market)

2. $1,579,000 - 5BR/5BA, 3,460 sq ft (73 days on market)

3. $1,859,000 - 5BR/5BA, 4,585 sq ft (80 days on market)

4. $4,200,000 - 6BR/5BA, 5,380 sq ft (87 days on market)

The extended days on market for these listings (32-87 days) reflect the deliberative nature of luxury buyers who conduct thorough due diligence before committing to seven-figure purchases. The $4.2 million listing represents the ultra-luxury segment of Big Sky Tract, priced at $781 per square foot.

Buyer Preferences: Spacious Luxury Living

The sales data reveals clear preferences among Big Sky Tract buyers:

5+ bedroom homes dominate with 13 sales averaging $1,448,000—representing 57% of all transactions. This reflects buyers seeking expansive family homes with space for multi-generational living, home offices, and entertainment.

Complete Market Breakdown:

• 4-bedroom homes: 10 sales, $1,176,090 average

• 5+ bedroom homes: 13 sales, $1,448,000 average

The substantial price premium for 5-bedroom homes ($272,000 more on average) demonstrates the value buyers place on additional space in this luxury segment.

Price Distribution: Concentrated Mid-Luxury Range

The sales distribution shows interesting clustering:

• 26% under $1.1M (6 sales) - entry-level for Big Sky Tract

• 52% between $1.1M-$1.4M (12 sales) - the market's sweet spot

• 26% over $1.4M (6 sales) - upper luxury segment

This concentration in the $1.1M-$1.4M range suggests this is where Big Sky Tract offers the best value proposition—substantial homes in a prestigious community at prices that attract serious luxury buyers.

Recent Sales Analysis: Market Efficiency Varies

Examining the most recent transactions reveals interesting patterns:

Quick Sales (Under 10 Days):

• $2,000,000 sale closed in just 2 days—exceptional property at right price

Moderate Timeline (30-50 Days):

• $1,075,000 sale took 33 days

• $995,900 sale took 51 days

Extended Marketing (90+ Days):

• Several homes took 90-123 days, suggesting initial overpricing or need for price adjustments

This range indicates that correctly priced homes move relatively quickly, while overpriced properties require extended marketing and eventual price reductions.

Price Per Square Foot Trends

The per-square-foot metrics show positive momentum despite overall price adjustments:

• Average list price per square foot: $416 (up from $398)

• Average sold price per square foot: $408 (up from $396)

These increases demonstrate that the market is actually strengthening on a per-square-foot basis, with the overall price adjustments reflecting a shift toward more modestly-sized homes rather than fundamental value decline.

Community Profile: Stable Luxury Enclave

Big Sky Tract's community characteristics support long-term value:

13-year average residency indicates high satisfaction among homeowners who choose this community for its quality of life, amenities, and prestige.

3.0% annual turnover rate among 758 homes shows a stable community where most residents are long-term stakeholders, creating neighborhood continuity.

758 total homes provides sufficient scale for robust market activity while maintaining exclusivity.

Market Comparison: Year-Over-Year Shifts

Comparing 2025 to 2024 reveals important market evolution:

Sales Volume: Up 35% (23 vs 17 sales) - dramatically improved liquidity

Average Price: Down from $1,395,435 to $1,329,778 - a 4.7% decrease that activated more buyers

Days on Market: Increased from 44 to 70 days - reflecting more deliberative buyers

Sale-to-List Ratio: Decreased from 99.5% to 98.2% - indicating modest negotiating leverage for buyers

These shifts collectively show a market transitioning from a tight seller's market to a more balanced environment where both parties can find fair value.

What This Means for Sellers

Market Realities:

• Price competitively from the start—overpricing leads to extended market time

• Expect some negotiation (98.2% of asking on average)

• Plan for 70-day average marketing period

• Extremely low inventory (only 4 active listings) creates opportunity

• Well-presented homes can still command premium prices

Strategic Approach: The $2 million sale that closed in 2 days proves that exceptional properties at fair prices attract immediate offers. Focus on condition, staging, and competitive pricing rather than testing the market at aspirational prices.

What This Means for Buyers

Current Opportunities:

• 35% increase in sales suggests more inventory will come to market

• Price adjustments from previous year create value opportunities

• Extended days on market (70 average) allow thorough due diligence

• Only 4 active listings means limited current selection but less competition

Strategic Considerations:

• Act decisively on well-priced properties—the $2M sale closed in 2 days

• Leverage the 98.2% sale-to-list ratio for modest negotiation

• Focus on homes under 60 days on market for best condition/pricing

• Consider that ultra-luxury ($4M+) remains aspirational pricing

Investment Perspective

Big Sky Tract presents an interesting investment case:

Positive Factors:

• 35% increase in sales volume shows improving liquidity

• Extremely tight inventory (0.5% of homes for sale)

• Price per square foot actually increasing ($396 to $408)

• Prestigious location with strong schools and amenities

• Low 3% turnover creates stable neighborhoods

Considerations:

• Recent price adjustments may continue in near term

• Extended marketing periods require patience

• Luxury markets are more sensitive to economic conditions

• Small sample size (23 annual sales) can create volatility

Looking Ahead: 2026 Outlook

Several factors suggest potential for market stabilization or modest appreciation:

1. Extremely low inventory (4 active listings) will likely support prices

2. Improved sales volume (+35%) demonstrates restored buyer confidence

3. Price per square foot gains show fundamental value strength

4. No new construction in established community maintains scarcity

5. Economic stability in Simi Valley supports luxury market

The market appears to have completed its price adjustment and is positioned for stabilization in 2026, with potential for modest appreciation if the current trajectory continues.

Positioning Within Broader Market Context

Big Sky Tract offers unique value propositions:

Compared to Simi Valley Overall:

• Average Big Sky sale: $1,329,778 vs. Simi Valley average: $954,623

• Big Sky properties command 39% premium over market average

• Offers luxury amenities, larger lots, and prestigious addresses

Compared to Adjacent Luxury Markets:

• More affordable than equivalent homes in Westlake Village or Calabasas

• Similar quality construction and finishes

• Strong school districts and family-friendly environment

• Less traffic congestion than adjacent communities

Conclusion

The Big Sky Tract luxury market is demonstrating healthy market dynamics as we enter 2026. The 35% increase in sales volume, combined with improving price-per-square-foot metrics, suggests a market that has successfully adjusted to a new equilibrium after previous rapid appreciation.

For sellers, success requires realistic pricing and excellent presentation—the market rewards quality and value. For buyers, the current environment offers opportunities to acquire exceptional properties with reasonable negotiating leverage and time for thorough evaluation.

The extremely tight inventory of just 4 active listings in a community of 758 homes suggests that well-priced properties entering the market will find ready buyers. The $2 million sale that closed in just 2 days proves that luxury buyers remain active and willing to act decisively for the right property.

As this prestigious Simi Valley enclave continues to mature, it offers compelling value for families seeking spacious luxury homes in a stable, community-oriented environment with excellent schools and amenities—fundamentals that support long-term value appreciation.

Ready to explore Big Sky Tract opportunities?

Steve Hise & Tricia Garcia
Exp Realty of California Inc
CALDRE # 01702055
📱 (805) 424-6226
📧 [email protected]
🌐 RealEstateToolBox.com

Market data from TheGenie.ai. All information should be independently verified.